BABINE SMOLT MARK-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS
Programed in True BASIC by Peter Macdonald
Voice: +1 (905) 679-9956
Version 1.5 (1999-01-21)
Sampling began on 1984-05-07
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
First day of sampling: 1984-05-07
Notes: Recov Number of smolts from this release group that were
eventually recovered.
Est Marks Total number of marks in the run on this day, estimated
by the 'Constant Sampling Fraction' model.
Recaps Total number of recaptures in the sample on this day.
Day * Release * Recov * Est Marks * Sample * Recaps * Run Est * Date
1 1025 2 512.50 4819 1 2469737 1984-05-07
2 1530 12 512.50 4208 1 2156600 1984-05-08
3 275 2 127.50 278 1 35445 1984-05-09
4 2050 37 255.00 11322 2 1443555 1984-05-10
5 2055 30 127.50 4951 1 631252 1984-05-11
6 2985 31 333.50 39472 3 4387971 1984-05-12
7 3070 35 68.50 8007 1 548480 1984-05-13
8 3030 29 773.57 14473 9 1243981 1984-05-14
9 3065 28 55.41 6879 1 381134 1984-05-15
10 3020 22 712.11 11218 9 887606 1984-05-16
11 3020 40 9961.01 80849 114 7064363 1984-05-17
12 2990 59 3317.56 87471 34 8535002 1984-05-18
13 3020 49 2040.83 62278 25 5083945 1984-05-19
14 3020 50 4741.64 89379 69 6142076 1984-05-20
15 3040 47 3279.31 205520 45 14976976 1984-05-21
16 3010 40 4848.03 172670 75 11161452 1984-05-22
17 3010 53 1543.38 20886 24 1343128 1984-05-23
18 3065 80 3273.96 62157 46 4423902 1984-05-24
19 2985 116 2052.30 46632 34 2814784 1984-05-25
20 2960 76 3140.85 23953 75 1003104 1984-05-26
21 2905 103 3528.29 44471 85 1845957 1984-05-27
22 2980 66 2483.02 39673 65 1515520 1984-05-28
23 2990 60 2793.39 22341 79 789964 1984-05-29
24 2950 45 4437.30 21724 114 845579 1984-05-30
25 1860 29 2172.84 9643 53 395335 1984-05-31
26 1685 16 2045.43 6024 42 293373 1984-06-01
27 940 5 2284.68 10909 43 579618 1984-06-02
28 970 11 3143.06 8256 51 508805 1984-06-03
29 870 8 3410.68 5748 48 408429 1984-06-04
30 0 0 581.57 2296 9 148364 1984-06-05
31 0 0 445.82 2471 7 157374 1984-06-06
32 0 0 152.32 651 2 49580 1984-06-07
33 0 0 628.87 2620 7 235377 1984-06-08
34 0 0 108.75 341 1 37084 1984-06-09
35 0 0 196.93 1029 2 101321 1984-06-10
36 0 0 285.11 828 3 78691 1984-06-11
Total run = 84724864
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Early run = 0 .0%
Late run = 84724864 100.0%
Total run = 84724864
Early run probabilities:
.10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000
Late run probabilities:
.01524 .09060 .24979 .20406 .14141 .10076 .07959 .05588 .03472 .02794
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Chisq = 554.31874 df = 242
Early run = 0 .0%
Std. error = 0
Late run = 101381831 100.0%
Std. error = 12135536
Total run = 101381831
Std. error = 12135536
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000
.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.01591 .09689 .25891 .20536 .13674 .09535 .07632 .05261 .03470 .02720
.00383 .00893 .01299 .01182 .00988 .00836 .00761 .00636 .00537 .00471
FITTED TRANSITION DATE: 1984-05-05
*** The 'Transition Date' is the first day of release for which the
released smolts show late-run behaviour.
*** This analysis assumes that marked smolts are released the day after
they were taken, so the Transition Date is ONE DAY AFTER the START
of the LATE RUN.
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Early run = 0 .0%
Late run = 84724864 100.0%
Total run = 84724864
Early run probabilities:
.10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000
Late run probabilities:
.01524 .09060 .24979 .20406 .14141 .10076 .07959 .05588 .03472 .02794
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1984-05-05 (Day -1)
Chisq = 554.31874 df = 242
Early run = 0 .0%
Std. error = 0
Late run = 101381831 100.0%
Std. error = 12135536
Total run = 101381831
Std. error = 12135536
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000 .10000
.00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000 .00000
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.01591 .09689 .25891 .20536 .13674 .09535 .07632 .05261 .03470 .02720
.00383 .00893 .01299 .01182 .00988 .00836 .00761 .00636 .00537 .00471
PARSIMONIOUS MODEL: NEGATIVE BINOMIAL ESTIMATES
First day of sampling: 1984-05-07
Day * Est Mks * CV * Sample * Rcp * Run Est * Lower * Upper * Date
1 16.31 .2408 4819 1 45908 12337 3101680 1984-05-07
2 123.65 .0863 4208 1 309243 91810 20550030 1984-05-08
3 418.00 .0408 278 1 69198 20777 4589698 1984-05-09
4 665.89 .0299 11322 2 2818528 1041095 31137330 1984-05-10
5 756.88 .0289 4951 1 2232116 671286 148010008 1984-05-11
6 1140.79 .0229 39472 3 12260472 5128280 72809937 1984-05-12
7 1552.82 .0179 8007 1 7407349 2229929 491092989 1984-05-13
8 2017.76 .0145 14473 9 3020158 1707844 7099014 1984-05-14
9 2363.72 .0116 6879 1 9687687 2917456 642236382 1984-05-15
10 2616.00 .0085 11218 9 3035101 1717175 7131892 1984-05-16
11 2776.73 .0066 80849 114 1957779 1638446 2388326 1984-05-17
12 2873.13 .0053 87471 34 7249291 5288568 10674770 1984-05-18
13 2966.30 .0023 62278 25 7197245 5005542 11418676 1984-05-19
14 2992.45 .0015 89379 69 3839155 3062811 4982050 1984-05-20
15 3018.90 .0002 205520 45 13586248 10304067 18902564 1984-05-21
16 3021.75 .0002 172670 75 6895559 5549921 8844650 1984-05-22
17 3023.02 .0002 20886 24 2559601 1768095 4105992 1984-05-23
18 3020.20 .0002 62157 46 4022675 3059550 5574198 1984-05-24
19 3020.32 .0002 46632 34 4062724 2964401 5981632 1984-05-25
20 3024.75 .0003 23953 75 957510 770656 1228159 1984-05-26
21 3010.93 .0004 44471 85 1563018 1273966 1972149 1984-05-27
22 2990.99 .0004 39673 65 1807019 1432280 2365397 1984-05-28
23 2972.46 .0005 22341 79 833567 674479 1061761 1984-05-29
24 2973.57 .0004 21724 114 563352 471692 686950 1984-05-30
25 2956.41 .0015 9643 53 531214 411223 718101 1984-05-31
26 2840.52 .0038 6024 42 401040 301372 565335 1984-06-01
27 2523.01 .0070 10909 43 630293 475021 884685 1984-06-02
28 2177.42 .0098 8256 51 347924 267881 473686 1984-06-03
29 1799.17 .0134 5748 48 212484 162271 292511 1984-06-04
30 1501.13 .0158 2296 9 356439 201532 837896 1984-06-05
31 1195.64 .0197 2471 7 385180 204550 1050417 1984-06-06
32 811.10 .0298 651 2 197404 72917 2180783 1984-06-07
33 516.64 .0406 2620 7 176399 93279 482224 1984-06-08
34 315.51 .0499 341 1 64050 19200 4249397 1984-06-09
35 195.89 .0631 1029 2 75278 27611 833469 1984-06-10
36 105.00 .0818 828 3 23624 9728 141181 1984-06-11
