BABINE SMOLT MARK-RECAPTURE ANALYSIS
Programed in True BASIC by Peter Macdonald
Voice: +1 (905) 679-9956
Version 1.6 (1999-01-22)
Sampling began on 1994-05-04
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
First day of sampling: 1994-05-04
Notes: Recov Number of smolts from this release group that were
eventually recovered.
Est Marks Total number of marks in the run on this day, estimated
by the 'Constant Sampling Fraction' model.
Recaps Total number of recaptures in the sample on this day.
Day * Release * Recov * Est Marks * Sample * Recaps * Run Est * Date
1 1556 89 279.73 22586 16 394874 1994-05-04
2 1526 94 359.65 4672 21 80014 1994-05-05
3 1534 74 488.27 15649 29 263483 1994-05-06
4 2991 128 520.74 10051 31 168838 1994-05-07
5 3071 127 268.49 4826 16 80983 1994-05-08
6 3065 129 1025.31 19320 58 341534 1994-05-09
7 3037 153 365.88 5494 19 105796 1994-05-10
8 3066 146 752.88 7900 35 169936 1994-05-11
9 3045 148 2192.97 15955 97 360709 1994-05-12
10 3063 185 4310.39 20200 191 455863 1994-05-13
11 3099 201 4217.76 19652 195 425063 1994-05-14
12 3076 218 2434.52 10932 117 227471 1994-05-15
13 3066 201 2193.82 10439 112 204476 1994-05-16
14 3082 154 6265.54 40412 350 723437 1994-05-17
15 3099 118 4395.66 58956 250 1036602 1994-05-18
16 3093 52 2560.99 28987 135 549892 1994-05-19
17 3068 70 7090.86 285178 376 5378079 1994-05-20
18 3074 40 4071.66 578262 124 18987791 1994-05-21
19 3085 29 2533.74 465721 59 20000283 1994-05-22
20 3067 36 4846.24 589330 70 40800497 1994-05-23
21 3086 53 4374.28 328622 75 19166463 1994-05-24
22 3058 35 4635.19 114282 67 7906254 1994-05-25
23 3054 28 1957.56 72114 22 6416717 1994-05-26
24 3057 29 2740.44 73153 29 6912804 1994-05-27
25 3098 28 3332.17 79111 33 7988211 1994-05-28
26 3071 43 2781.75 117486 33 9903521 1994-05-29
27 3003 57 1590.62 59629 23 4123778 1994-05-30
28 3014 62 2961.01 23971 47 1510178 1994-05-31
29 3053 61 4098.63 52080 70 3049378 1994-06-01
30 3019 94 2131.06 34180 44 1655445 1994-06-02
31 3041 72 2838.89 35643 74 1367385 1994-06-03
32 2971 68 3214.01 38908 75 1667342 1994-06-04
33 0 0 2384.40 21356 57 893355 1994-06-05
34 0 0 1543.57 13506 36 579095 1994-06-06
35 0 0 865.08 30962 21 1275464 1994-06-07
36 0 0 392.30 23046 9 1004558 1994-06-08
37 0 0 135.98 17122 3 776063 1994-06-09
38 0 0 50.05 17355 1 868604 1994-06-10
39 0 0 43.69 19790 1 864648 1994-06-11
40 0 0 42.24 1498 1 63270 1994-06-12
41 0 0 .00 2932 0 -9999 1994-06-13
Total run = 168748155
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-16 (Day 13)
Early run = 2847095 1.7%
Late run = 165901060 98.3%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.01478 .02955 .07920 .17671 .20095 .21158 .11998 .08983 .04196 .03546
Late run probabilities:
.16241 .28120 .18271 .15940 .12707 .03609 .03008 .00752 .00902 .00451
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-16 (Day 13)
Chisq = 1241.352 df = 261
Early run = 2846203 1.7%
Std. error = 167373
Late run = 160521147 98.3%
Std. error = 7005056
Total run = 163367350
Std. error = 7007055
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.00379 .02095 .07582 .18881 .21899 .20195 .11639 .09100 .04408 .03825
.00136 .00379 .00709 .01043 .01095 .01008 .00806 .00738 .00534 .00507
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.13487 .23845 .17773 .17062 .14317 .05176 .04769 .01226 .01514 .00832
.00853 .01093 .01011 .01030 .00980 .00689 .00695 .00364 .00416 .00320
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-17 (Day 14)
Early run = 3074566 1.8%
Late run = 165673589 98.2%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.01479 .03803 .07924 .17274 .23349 .19493 .11146 .08030 .04226 .03275
Late run probabilities:
.18866 .31178 .20106 .16298 .05934 .03277 .02834 .00886 .00266 .00354
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-17 (Day 14)
Chisq = 1079.5834 df = 261
Early run = 3172895 1.9%
Std. error = 171896
Late run = 164986259 98.1%
Std. error = 7120442
Total run = 168159154
Std. error = 7122516
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.00530 .02905 .07436 .18453 .23331 .19113 .11408 .08513 .04623 .03689
.00164 .00409 .00647 .00983 .01028 .00946 .00778 .00696 .00531 .00485
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.14659 .29015 .20635 .17164 .07664 .04555 .04094 .01305 .00372 .00537
.00922 .01284 .01158 .01090 .00837 .00678 .00658 .00382 .00203 .00257
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-18 (Day 15)
Early run = 3279042 1.9%
Late run = 165469113 98.1%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.02345 .05325 .07816 .19297 .22130 .18417 .10308 .07426 .03908 .03029
Late run probabilities:
.19795 .32308 .22256 .11897 .05744 .02974 .03282 .01026 .00308 .00410
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-18 (Day 15)
Chisq = 1148.4655 df = 261
Early run = 3603494 2.1%
Std. error = 181265
Late run = 171887668 97.9%
Std. error = 7521404
Total run = 175491162
Std. error = 7523588
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.01420 .04569 .07606 .19083 .22193 .18552 .10737 .07970 .04334 .03536
.00266 .00483 .00622 .00910 .00963 .00901 .00729 .00648 .00495 .00461
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.16395 .30620 .21647 .14011 .07017 .03695 .04304 .01386 .00391 .00534
.01065 .01408 .01243 .01125 .00844 .00628 .00697 .00407 .00215 .00257
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-19 (Day 16)
Early run = 4002479 2.4%
Late run = 164745676 97.6%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.02679 .05681 .09700 .19215 .21293 .17413 .10254 .07159 .03695 .02910
Late run probabilities:
.21354 .35123 .19487 .11085 .05601 .03384 .02450 .00817 .00350 .00350
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-19 (Day 16)
Chisq = 1132.05 df = 261
Early run = 4033397 2.2%
Std. error = 186157
Late run = 180348251 97.8%
Std. error = 8022480
Total run = 184381648
Std. error = 8024639
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.01745 .05038 .08871 .18919 .21620 .17682 .10722 .07729 .04206 .03467
.00282 .00490 .00621 .00874 .00926 .00858 .00705 .00619 .00478 .00446
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.18594 .32006 .22197 .12625 .06183 .03806 .02901 .00966 .00356 .00366
.01220 .01511 .01408 .01136 .00817 .00656 .00590 .00345 .00201 .00208
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-20 (Day 17)
Early run = 5039080 3.0%
Late run = 163709075 97.0%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.02887 .05909 .10194 .19125 .21019 .17140 .10149 .07082 .03654 .02842
Late run probabilities:
.21988 .36398 .18758 .10807 .05342 .03230 .02236 .00621 .00248 .00373
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-20 (Day 17)
Chisq = 980.03002 df = 261
Early run = 4772510 2.5%
Std. error = 192293
Late run = 187562513 97.5%
Std. error = 8558869
Total run = 192335023
Std. error = 8561029
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.01960 .04860 .09251 .18957 .21397 .17421 .10649 .07821 .04240 .03444
.00291 .00444 .00610 .00848 .00893 .00825 .00681 .00607 .00467 .00432
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.17794 .39556 .20299 .10828 .05135 .03127 .02223 .00564 .00187 .00287
.01257 .01782 .01450 .01099 .00769 .00609 .00525 .00255 .00137 .00178
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Early run = 5588973 3.3%
Late run = 163159182 96.7%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.03017 .06428 .10713 .19327 .20638 .16791 .09882 .06909 .03542 .02755
Late run probabilities:
.23401 .37687 .17959 .09388 .05034 .02993 .02313 .00544 .00272 .00408
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Chisq = 881.39745 df = 261
Early run = 5467272 2.8%
Std. error = 202449
Late run = 188667007 97.2%
Std. error = 8762382
Total run = 194134280
Std. error = 8764720
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.01929 .05299 .09820 .19172 .20959 .17066 .10528 .07717 .04146 .03363
.00269 .00451 .00613 .00831 .00864 .00798 .00665 .00591 .00452 .00418
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.24230 .40472 .17600 .08328 .04216 .02474 .01867 .00397 .00164 .00251
.01662 .01905 .01426 .01002 .00712 .00545 .00472 .00206 .00124 .00161
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-22 (Day 19)
Early run = 10967052 6.5%
Late run = 157781103 93.5%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.03438 .06489 .11517 .18994 .20327 .16502 .09755 .06790 .03481 .02707
Late run probabilities:
.23165 .39281 .15683 .09928 .05180 .03165 .02302 .00576 .00288 .00432
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-22 (Day 19)
Chisq = 923.34138 df = 261
Early run = 7840880 4.2%
Std. error = 236958
Late run = 178667765 95.8%
Std. error = 8271817
Total run = 186508645
Std. error = 8275211
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.02276 .05420 .10588 .18746 .20549 .16935 .10456 .07612 .04087 .03330
.00287 .00450 .00626 .00810 .00844 .00787 .00655 .00580 .00443 .00411
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.25617 .41493 .15047 .08639 .04213 .02443 .01743 .00395 .00163 .00248
.01814 .02002 .01389 .01063 .00736 .00548 .00461 .00208 .00124 .00160
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-23 (Day 20)
Early run = 29954843 17.8%
Late run = 138793312 82.2%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.03565 .07003 .11630 .18846 .20161 .16299 .09677 .06706 .03438 .02674
Late run probabilities:
.23574 .38889 .15465 .10060 .05105 .03303 .02252 .00601 .00300 .00450
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-23 (Day 20)
Chisq = 958.33273 df = 261
Early run = 22160970 12.6%
Std. error = 1302013
Late run = 153729994 87.4%
Std. error = 7453960
Total run = 175890964
Std. error = 7566819
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.02412 .05887 .10655 .18503 .20512 .16791 .10391 .07528 .04058 .03264
.00293 .00463 .00619 .00795 .00836 .00777 .00647 .00571 .00437 .00401
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.26022 .41482 .14951 .08701 .03958 .02441 .01635 .00395 .00162 .00251
.01907 .02094 .01450 .01111 .00723 .00557 .00454 .00211 .00125 .00165
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-24 (Day 21)
Early run = 49955126 29.6%
Late run = 118793029 70.4%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.03721 .07734 .11831 .18645 .19858 .16054 .09532 .06605 .03386 .02634
Late run probabilities:
.24127 .37937 .14921 .10317 .05397 .03492 .02381 .00635 .00317 .00476
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-24 (Day 21)
Chisq = 1021.7295 df = 261
Early run = 46273193 27.3%
Std. error = 3377027
Late run = 123320778 72.7%
Std. error = 6480144
Total run = 169593970
Std. error = 7307297
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.02575 .06551 .10837 .18424 .20266 .16560 .10236 .07440 .03963 .03149
.00300 .00482 .00616 .00787 .00824 .00765 .00636 .00563 .00426 .00386
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.26966 .41064 .14390 .08537 .04031 .02497 .01675 .00402 .00170 .00269
.02036 .02197 .01491 .01124 .00747 .00577 .00470 .00217 .00132 .00179
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-25 (Day 22)
Early run = 90755623 53.8%
Late run = 77992532 46.2%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.04458 .08466 .11616 .18364 .19591 .15706 .09366 .06462 .03354 .02618
Late run probabilities:
.22877 .37608 .16118 .10745 .05199 .03813 .02426 .00693 .00173 .00347
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-25 (Day 22)
Chisq = 1125.0481 df = 261
Early run = 72047715 42.9%
Std. error = 4555872
Late run = 95909170 57.1%
Std. error = 5751948
Total run = 167956885
Std. error = 7337635
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.03248 .07265 .10760 .18229 .20024 .16215 .10087 .07220 .03848 .03104
.00335 .00501 .00609 .00777 .00813 .00751 .00626 .00547 .00412 .00378
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.26510 .41590 .14964 .08497 .03676 .02567 .01581 .00397 .00072 .00147
.02152 .02320 .01563 .01155 .00729 .00600 .00463 .00221 .00081 .00128
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-26 (Day 23)
Early run = 109922086 65.1%
Late run = 58826069 34.9%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.05242 .08669 .11452 .18185 .19355 .15484 .09274 .06452 .03306 .02581
Late run probabilities:
.20480 .38561 .17159 .11070 .05351 .04059 .02399 .00369 .00185 .00369
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-26 (Day 23)
Chisq = 1212.7777 df = 261
Early run = 85477790 51.4%
Std. error = 4808392
Late run = 80918501 48.6%
Std. error = 5356651
Total run = 166396291
Std. error = 7198218
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.03940 .07557 .10688 .18113 .19822 .16060 .09939 .07102 .03777 .03002
.00365 .00508 .00603 .00769 .00803 .00744 .00615 .00535 .00404 .00365
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.25306 .42031 .15771 .08626 .03698 .02635 .01530 .00193 .00068 .00142
.02259 .02425 .01661 .01207 .00755 .00625 .00472 .00153 .00078 .00131
FITTED TRANSITION DATE: 1994-05-21
*** The 'Transition Date' is the first day of release for which the
released smolts show late-run behaviour.
*** This analysis assumes that marked smolts are released the day after
they were taken, so the Transition Date is ONE DAY AFTER the START
of the LATE RUN.
CONSTANT SAMPLING FRACTION MODEL
*** Totals exclude days with no recaptures.
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Early run = 5588973 3.3%
Late run = 163159182 96.7%
Total run = 168748155
Early run probabilities:
.03017 .06428 .10713 .19327 .20638 .16791 .09882 .06909 .03542 .02755
Late run probabilities:
.23401 .37687 .17959 .09388 .05034 .02993 .02313 .00544 .00272 .00408
FITTED PARSIMONIOUS MODEL
Assumed transition date: 1994-05-21 (Day 18)
Chisq = 881.39745 df = 261
Early run = 5467272 2.8%
Std. error = 202449
Late run = 188667005 97.2%
Std. error = 8762382
Total run = 194134278
Std. error = 8764720
Early run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.01929 .05299 .09820 .19172 .20959 .17066 .10528 .07717 .04146 .03363
.00269 .00451 .00613 .00831 .00864 .00798 .00665 .00591 .00452 .00418
Late run probabilities and their Std. Errors:
.24230 .40472 .17600 .08328 .04216 .02474 .01867 .00397 .00164 .00251
.01662 .01905 .01426 .01002 .00712 .00545 .00472 .00206 .00124 .00161
PARSIMONIOUS MODEL: NEGATIVE BINOMIAL ESTIMATES
First day of sampling: 1994-05-04
Day * Est Mks * CV * Sample * Rcp * Run Est * Lower * Upper * Date
1 30.01 .1393 22586 16 40406 23793 78099 1994-05-04
2 111.89 .0737 4672 21 24082 15811 40962 1994-05-05
3 263.26 .0467 15649 29 138762 97576 214076 1994-05-06
4 587.16 .0294 10051 31 186306 133372 281258 1994-05-07
5 987.06 .0204 4826 16 285754 182953 521506 1994-05-08
6 1395.06 .0155 19320 58 459380 358744 612923 1994-05-09
7 1841.77 .0124 5494 19 514455 340749 885007 1994-05-10
8 2279.25 .0094 7900 35 504821 369692 738908 1994-05-11
9 2604.95 .0069 15955 97 425541 351056 528586 1994-05-12
10 2819.15 .0043 20200 191 297112 258669 345482 1994-05-13
11 2937.59 .0031 19652 195 295039 257255 342469 1994-05-14
12 3004.32 .0021 10932 117 279120 234211 339436 1994-05-15
13 3059.35 .0002 10439 112 283460 236979 346307 1994-05-16
14 3067.29 .0001 40412 350 353485 318932 394400 1994-05-17
15 3072.36 .0001 58956 250 722609 640077 823456 1994-05-18
16 3074.66 .0001 28987 135 656941 557768 787403 1994-05-19
17 3077.86 .0001 285178 376 2330275 2109976 2589571 1994-05-20
18 3766.91 .0138 578262 124 17471549 14700463 21159565 1994-05-21
19 4853.07 .0126 465721 59 37877872 29657681 50375042 1994-05-22
20 5090.93 .0104 589330 70 42454515 33890134 55023800 1994-05-23
21 4753.57 .0099 328622 75 20644097 16600454 26499825 1994-05-24
22 4235.53 .0099 114282 67 7153112 5683747 9328598 1994-05-25
23 3776.15 .0092 72114 22 12013024 8171616 19757126 1994-05-26
24 3504.22 .0076 73153 29 8640463 6152635 13202126 1994-05-27
25 3287.08 .0060 79111 33 7723855 5609784 11449703 1994-05-28
26 3173.33 .0043 117486 33 11073641 8043597 16413947 1994-05-29
27 3057.37 .0004 59629 23 7702868 5282546 12503941 1994-05-30
28 3030.75 .0004 23971 47 1524115 1162400 2103740 1994-05-31
29 3032.04 .0003 52080 70 2234546 1785470 2893774 1994-06-01
30 3035.78 .0003 34180 44 2323025 1756667 3245585 1994-06-02
31 3032.29 .0002 35643 74 1447494 1163398 1860052 1994-06-03
32 3019.93 .0004 38908 75 1552852 1249819 1991781 1994-06-04
33 2273.37 .0220 21356 57 841771 654765 1128053 1994-06-05
34 1059.98 .0542 13506 36 390050 281592 575754 1994-06-06
35 531.93 .0855 30962 21 758244 493182 1298445 1994-06-07
36 281.45 .1202 23046 9 667627 358510 1619342 1994-06-08
37 154.84 .1604 17122 3 715776 280877 4360467 1994-06-09
38 80.16 .2169 17355 1 815700 224029 54912993 1994-06-10
39 24.36 .3850 19790 1 273048 61147 19006531 1994-06-11
40 12.52 .5234 1498 1 10165 1749 738081 1994-06-12
41 7.47 .6393 2932 0 27322 3725 -999 1994-06-13
