My Erdos Number is
3 based on the sequence
- Erdos, P. and Galambos, J. Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 46 pp. 1-8
(1974).
- Galambos, J. and Seneta, E. Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 50 pp.
383 - 387(1975).
- Hoppe, F.M. and Seneta, E. Internat. Statist. Rev. 58 pp.
253 - 261(1991).
Selected Recent Publications
- Stewart N. Ethier and Fred M. Hoppe. Teaching a University Course on the Mathematics of Gambling.
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal.
Retrieved from
https://digitalscholarship.unlv.edu/grrj/vol24/iss1/2. 24(1), pp. 1 - 35 (2020).
- Fred M. Hoppe, Daniel J. Hoppe, and Stephen J. Walter. Explaining odds ratios as conditional risk ratios.
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 97 pp. 123 - 124 (2018).
- Fred M. Hoppe, Daniel J. Hoppe, and Stephen J. Walter. Odds ratios deconstructed: a new way to understand and explain
odds ratios.
Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 82 pp. 87 - 93 (2017).
- Fred M. Hoppe. Benford's Law and distractors in multiple choice
exams. International Journal of Mathematical Education in Science and Technology, 47(4), pp. 606 - 612 (2016).
- Daniel J. Hoppe, Matthew Denkers, Fred M. Hoppe, and Ivan H. Wong. The use of video prior to arthroscopic
shoulder surgery to enhance patient recall and satisfaction: a randomi\zed-controlled study.
Journal of Shoulder and Elbow Surgery, doi:10.1016/jse.2013.09.008, 23(6), pp. 134 - 139 (2014).
Winner of 2014 Stephen Abrahamson Award for Outstanding Innovation.
Innovations in Medical Education Conference 2014, Keck School of Medicine of USC,
Los Angeles, February 22 - 23, (2014).
- Paul Sermer, Fred M. Hoppe, Dan-Pun Quach, Keith R. Weaver, Charles Olive,and Israel Cheng.
Statistical foundation for decision making in nuclear safety-related
problems using best estimate plus uncertainty analyses, Nuclear Science
and Engineering, 178, pp. 119 - 155 (2014).
- Fred M. Hoppe and Keith R. Weaver. The happy medium: a useful property of solutions from
EVS methodology. Canadian Nuclear Society Bulletin, 34(1), pp. 13 - 17 (2013).
- Dan Pun-Quach, Paul Sermer, Fred M. Hoppe, Oved Nainer, and Bac Phan. A BEPU
analysis separating epistemic and aleatory errors to compute accurate
dryout power uncertainties. Nuclear Technology, 181, pp. 170 - 183 (2013).
- Fred M. Hoppe and Eugene Seneta. Gumbel's Identity, binomial moments, and
Bonferroni sums. International Statistical Review, 80(2), pp. 269 - 292 (2012).
- Stewart N. Ethier and Fred M. Hoppe. A world record in Atlantic City
and the length of the shooter's hand at craps. The Mathematical
Intelligencer, 32(4), pp. 44 - 48. (2010).
- Fred M. Hoppe. Effect of redundancy on probability bounds.
Discrete Math. 309 pp. 123-127 (2009).
- Fred M. Hoppe. Faa di Bruno's formula and the distributions of random
partitions in population genetics and physics.
Theoretical Population Biology, 73 , pp. 543 - 551 (2008).
- Fred M. Hoppe and Mikhail Nediak.
Frechet optimal bounds on the probability of
a union with supplementary information. Statist. Probab. Lett.,
78 , pp. 511-319 (2008).
- Fred M. Hoppe, Branching processes and the effect of parlaying bets on lottery odds. In
Optimal Play: Mathematical Studies of Games and Gambling, Institute for the Study of Gambling
and Commercial Gaming, University of Nevada, pp. 361 - 373 (2007).
Recent Refereed Conference Proceedings
- D. Quach, P. Sermer, F. M. Hoppe, O. Nainer, and B. Phan.
A Best-estimate plus uncertainty type analysis for computing
accurate critical channel power uncertainties.
Proceedings of The 14th International Topical Meeting on Nuclear Reactor Thermalhydraulics,
NURETH-14
Toronto, Ontario, Canada, September 25 - 30, (2011)
- Fred M. Hoppe and Lin Fang. Bayesian prediction for the Gumbel
distribution applied to feeder pipe thicknesses. Proceedings of the
16th International Conference on Nuclear Engineering. Orlando FL, May
11 - 15 (2008)
Current/Recent Graduate Students
Dan Pun-quach (Ph.D.) - graduated September 2015. "A Statistical Framework for Distinguishing
between Aleatory and Epistemic
Uncertainties in the Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) Nuclear Safety Analyses"
Xingli Wei (Ph.D.) - graduated June 2014. "Parameter Estimation and Prediction Interval
Construction for Location-Scale Models with Nuclear Applications"
Jungtae Kim (M.Sc.) - graduated January 2012. "Optimal Strategy Hand-Rank Table for Jacks or
Better, Double Bonus, and Joker WildVideo Poker"
Consulting
I am very interested in applications of probability and statistics
to industry and business.
The main companies for whom I have consulted are in the nuclear sector and include
Kinectrics, AMEC-NSS, Nuclear Safety Solutions, Ontario Power Generation,
Ontario Hydro, and the CANDU Owners Group, but I have also done work for
the Ontario Lottery and Gaming
Corporation, the Western Canada Lottery Corporation, Fallsview Casino, the Canadian
Nuclear Safety Commission, Monserco,
Ontario Workplace Safety Insurance
Board, Kraft Foods, Nestles, and the Ontario College of
Respitatory Therapists, as well as various law firms.
Lotteries
Since the Maclean's Magazine article
appeared, quoting my calculations for Lotto, and
comparing the chance of winning to
the chance of tossing 24 heads in a row
(This description covered Lotto 6/49 at the time. It needs to be updated for the new prize structure.)
I have often been contacted by the media when there is
lottery fever or some lottery
question.
This happened most recently in October 2006 the day of a CBC Fifth Estate program
concerning allegations of fraud by lottery retailers. I was quoted by the Toronto Star as saying that
no more than about 20 retailers should have won
major prizes.
(This story even appeared in the Canadian Chinese
press.)
I computed this number based on the information given to me by both the Star and CHTV. My understanding
was that the figures supplied applied only to Lotto Super 7 and my estimate therefore only
applied to this particular lottery.
Unfortunately, this information was omitted from the article, but happily, the article
did say
that my conclusion "depend[ed] on assumptions made about how many retailers play the lottery."
A Few Lottery Clips in the
Media
Chance
Chance is an outstanding source of probability and
statistics
ideas as applied to everyday life to which I've occasionally contributed items with pedagogic value. Here
are four that would be of interest
to high school and university students.